Erie County Clerk
Press Releases
1/2/09
Gloom and Doom in National Foreclosure News Not Evident in Erie County
I recently had the opportunity to speak to one of the most optimistic groups of people you will find, a committee from the Buffalo-Niagara Association of Realtors. They expressed concern that local potential home buyers and sellers were being bombarded by national media outlets shouting about foreclosure and sub-prime lending problems. (CNNMoney.com-"Foreclosures up a record 81% in 2008. Filings continued to soar through the end of the year-and there's no relief in sight for 2009." The New York Times-"The first three months of 2008 marked the worst quarter for American Homeowners in nearly 3 decades.") Since perception affects reality, and consumer confidence is hurt by these negative images, I wanted to make an effort to get the brighter local story out.
I told the Realtors that based upon the figures compiled in Erie County in 2008, the gloom and doom foreclosure stories have not occurred here to the same magnitude they have elsewhere in the U.S. The Erie County Clerk's Office records every Lis Pendens (Mortgage Foreclosure Initiated) and every actual Mortgage Foreclosure in Erie County, excluding tax foreclosures. While it is a tragedy for anyone to lose their home, Erie County numbers have been dropping steadily for 3 straight years. Actual foreclosures fell by 8% from 2007 to 2008 and by 26% from 2005 to 2008. Lis Pendens filings dropped by over 17% from 2007 to 2008. These numbers are drastically different from the national picture, which according to RealtyTrac (An online marketer of distressed properties) saw national foreclosure rates rise 225% from 2006 to 2008. To put our actual foreclosure numbers in perspective, the 1662 properties lost to foreclosure in Erie County in 2008 represents less than 2/10ths of 1% of the national number.
The reasons for the continued strength of the local housing market are many. The fact that Erie County did not participate in the housing "boom" meant that housing values were never overinflated compared with many areas of the country. Local lenders continued to follow conservative lending patterns and maintained standard underwriting practices which helped minimize home buyers overextending their credit. According to Forbes Magazine, Buffalo ranks number 4 among the 25 strongest housing markets in the country. The research done by Moody's Economy.com for Forbes, predicts an average decline of 15% in housing values across the nation, while locally the forecast is for no more than a 1% decline. I have been monitoring Erie County's statistics since 2003 and I believe that a pent up demand for housing, the continued lowering of interest rates and the stability of the local banking community will make 2009 a more successful year in real estate in Erie County.
While we have many challenges ahead, I believe Erie County is resilient and that our rebound from the national economic woes will be sooner than in many parts of this country. So it is time to "start spreading the news" to anyone near and far who will listen. The figures don't lie, and they tell a story that our optimistic friends in the real estate community already knew.
